President Javier Milei has shaken the foundations of Argentina with his famous chainsaw, a symbol of an economic and moral revolution long awaited. For millions of Argentines, Milei embodies the lost hope after years of collapse caused by a statist model that promised prosperity but only enriched a political elite while the majority suffered in oblivion.
Milei is now more popular than when he took office. The reason? He has kept his promises, and they have produced tangible results. His radical approach is based on a simple but powerful principle: allowing people to decide their own destiny without the chains of government interventionism. As Ronald Reagan warned: “Government is not the solution; government is the problem.” Milei understands this well: progress begins by returning power to citizens, reducing state interference, and stopping public spending that, until now, had only served to perpetuate the privileges of a few, and when I speak of a few, I mean the politicians in power.
Eliminating the deficit and efficient spending
One of Milei’s greatest achievements has been reducing the fiscal deficit, an essential pillar for rescuing the Argentine economy. According to JP Morgan, the country went from a deficit of 1.5% of GDP to a surplus of 1.7% in just one year. This shift has not only balanced the accounts, but also restored international confidence. In contrast, Guatemala is moving down a troubling path: Guatemala’s deficit, which already reached 3.1% of GDP this year, threatens to drive public debt to 39% by the end of Bernardo Arévalo’s term.
To put this into perspective, our current debt, equivalent to 27% of GDP, has taken nearly 80 years to accumulate since the days of Jorge Ubico, who left the country debt-free. However, in just four years, this government plans to increase that figure by nearly 50%.
Think about it carefully: what accumulated over four generations, from your grandparents until today, will increase by almost half in the blink of an eye, leaving our children and grandchildren with an unsustainable burden.
What will we receive in return for this uncontrolled deficit? Modern highways connecting the capital with San Marcos? A high-speed train linking Huehuetenango with the border of El Salvador? The construction of two mega ports in Ocós and Iztapa to boost our competitiveness in the region? The creation of 340 Health Centers dedicated to fighting malnutrition, vaccinating our children, and responding to emergencies in the most remote communities? Or perhaps the possibility that our students could lead the PISA rankings worldwide? No. The harsh reality is that this increase in spending will be used mainly to pay interest on a debt that will bring no tangible progress. Can we allow this without doing anything about it?
Milei has demonstrated that progress does not depend on spending more, but on spending better. In just one year, Argentina has made a radical turn, marking a palpable difference. And in Guatemala? More debt, more bureaucracy, and the feeling that we cannot achieve anything.
The contrast could not be more evident. While Argentina moves forward, Europe and Latin America continue suffering the consequences of unsustainable statist policies. A dramatic example is France, where Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government collapsed after only three months in power, unable to survive the political rejection of its plan to correct a deficit of 6% of GDP. Voices are already being heard demanding President Macron’s resignation. Most concerning is that just seven years ago, when Macron assumed the presidency in 2017, the French deficit stood at 3.4%, a level comparable to Guatemala’s today. Are we heading down the same path?
Reducing inflation and growing the economy
Another key triumph for Milei is his ability to tame inflation, one of the most devastating problems Argentina faced. In October, the Consumer Price Index rose only 2.7%, the lowest monthly increase since 2020. This figure is impressive considering that JP Morgan projects a drop in annual inflation from 120% in 2024 to 25% in 2025. Meanwhile, here we continue watching with concern as current policies could generate more inflation instead of controlling it.
But Milei has not limited himself to containing public spending and inflation; he has also placed Argentina on the path toward wealth creation. After a severe contraction in the first half of 2024, the Argentine economy is beginning to reemerge. According to JP Morgan, GDP may already be growing at an annualized rate of 8.5% at this moment, although by the end of 2024 an annualized expansion of 4.4% is expected. Even so, this growth surpasses Guatemala’s projected 3.4%. How did a country that seemed to be on the verge of collapse manage to reverse its destiny in such a short time? Could we learn something from this example?
Deregulation and oil
Oil and Milei’s policies have generated a historic turnaround in Argentina’s energy balance: the country is recording its largest surplus in 17 years. The key to success? Deregulation. With a single decree, Milei liberalized oil exploitation, eliminating unnecessary procedures and providing the legal stability investors always seek, while also creating a new Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI), which offers 30 years of legal and regulatory stability for projects exceeding US$200 million.
In contrast, in Guatemala we remain trapped in a cycle that favors privileges. Recent livestock legislation not only perpetuates inequalities, but also opens the door to corrupt practices and money laundering. While other countries move forward with policies that encourage transparency and development, we continue clinging to systems that sacrifice the future for the interests of a few.
Time will be the judge
The clock is ticking and the results are visible. In less than a year, Milei has restored hope to a country that seemed lost. Guatemala, on the other hand, appears destined to sink deeper into the swamp of debt and inefficiency. Time will give us the answer. I hope I am wrong, but economic history leaves little room for optimism.
Milei has demonstrated that progress does not depend on spending more, but on spending better. In just one year, Argentina has made a radical turn, marking a palpable difference. And in Guatemala? More debt, more bureaucracy, and the feeling that we cannot achieve anything. We are standing on the edge of the abyss. If we do not act now, if we do not demand real change in spending priorities and in the execution capacity of public administration, the consequences will be devastating. Not only for us, but for the generations that come after us. The moment to react is today, before it is too late.
