As Donald Trump and his inner circle participate in a solemn Thanksgiving service at St. John’s Episcopal Church, across from Lafayette Square in Washington, Guatemala watches from a distance, facing difficult questions about its future. What does Trump’s return mean for a country whose stability depends, in large part, on its relationship with the United States? Can we become a strategic ally, or will we remain trapped in the shadows of this global reconfiguration?
Trump’s return to power brings with it a profound and disruptive transformation in the Western Hemisphere. With a clear focus on prioritizing Latin America and countering China’s influence, Trump’s administration moves away from global consensus politics, opting instead for a transactional strategy under the slogan “America First.” The question for Guatemala is not whether we will be affected, but how we will respond to this shift.
Trump has decided to concentrate U.S. efforts on the Western Hemisphere, leaving global conflicts such as Ukraine and Gaza in the background. Moves such as the proposal to acquire Greenland and renewed interest in the Mesoamerican region underscore this strategic reconfiguration. Guatemala, with assets such as its recognition of Taiwan and its embassy in Jerusalem, has a unique opportunity to position itself as a reliable ally. However, its association with the Puebla Group raises doubts about its ideological alignment with an administration that prioritizes clear allies such as Nayib Bukele and Javier Milei.
President Arévalo’s absence from the list of guests invited to Trump’s inauguration contrasts sharply with the presence of these leaders and highlights a troubling distance. This exclusion reflects not only ideological differences, but also a missed opportunity to strengthen our bilateral relationship at a time when strategic clarity is essential.
The designation of Mexican cartels and any associated groups as terrorist organizations opens the legal door to military action, which could push their operations and drug trafficking routes toward Guatemala. This would increase violence and place the country under pressure to cooperate more closely with the United States. Failing this challenge would not only worsen our insecurity, but could also position us as a weak link in the fight against organized crime, with economic and diplomatic repercussions.
On the other hand, the Trump administration will seek to destabilize the socialist regimes of Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua, with figures such as Marco Rubio leading these efforts. This reinforces the urgency for Guatemala to define a clear position, moving away from any ambiguity that could damage its relationship with Washington.
Every decision we make over the next few years will determine whether Guatemala advances as a strategic ally or falls behind in a constantly changing world. Will we be capable of turning this challenge into an opportunity to lead?
Trump’s renewed interest in the Panama Canal as a counterweight to Chinese influence highlights the importance of strategic infrastructure in the hemisphere. Guatemala, with its privileged geographic location, could take advantage of this moment by strengthening its ports and attracting near-shoring investments. However, this requires a clear strategy that positions the country as a reliable partner in trade and logistics.
With remittances accounting for more than 18 % of GDP, the slowdown in their growth to 8.6 % in 2024 is already a cause for concern. Any additional reduction caused by Trump’s migration or fiscal policies, tariffs, or restrictions would have a devastating impact on the exchange rate and inflation, leaving thousands of families without their primary source of income. This blow to economic stability could generate greater tensions in vulnerable communities, exacerbating a possible social crisis.
To mitigate this impact, Guatemala must diversify its sources of income, strengthen its domestic market, and attract foreign investment through fiscal incentives. Without decisive action, the years of relative economic stability could give way to a crisis that many young Guatemalans—unfamiliar with the critical periods of the 1970s and 1980s—have neither experienced nor are prepared to face.
The reinstatement of “Remain in Mexico” and increased deportations will intensify pressures on Guatemala. However, these same circumstances also provide an opportunity to renegotiate agreements that benefit both sides. Positioning ourselves as a strategic ally in managing migration flows and border security could be key to strengthening our relationship with the United States.
Trump’s return to power redefines the rules of the game in the hemisphere. Guatemala cannot afford to remain a passive spectator. Our future will depend on our ability to adapt, diversify our economy, and act proactively with strategic vision. But this is not only the responsibility of President Arévalo’s government; it is also in the interest of the private sector and civil society to participate actively in this strategic effort. Everything we can do in this regard will be of enormous value to our country.
The time to act is now. Every decision we make in the coming years will determine whether Guatemala advances as a strategic ally or falls behind in a constantly changing world. Will we be capable of turning this challenge into an opportunity to lead? The future is not written, but it depends on us finding our voice and forging our destiny among the great nations of the world.
