Argentina’s legislative election on October 27 became a true moral referendum on the future of the nation, and the result is categorical. In just four years, La Libertad Avanza went from having a single congressman in 2021 to controlling the Executive Branch and becoming the most powerful minority in Congress and the Senate. In a country that seemed condemned to inflation, poverty, and debt, the people chose to continue down the difficult path. They did not vote for comfort, but for conviction; they chose austerity over the continuity of corruption and clientelism.
With the October results, the Argentine people gave Milei an unquestionable mandate: sustain and expand the course of reforms. In Congress, the ruling party consolidated close to 95 deputies and 20 senators; together with its ally, PRO, it forms a governing bloc close to a majority. It is not absolute, but it is a governing axis capable of stopping populist backsliding and approving reforms.
What did Milei do to achieve this? He reached a fiscal surplus, eliminated useless government positions, deregulated more than 300 laws, repealed the rent control law —which multiplied housing supply fivefold— eliminated price controls, and created an incentive regime for large investments (RIGI). The new stage proposes deepening reforms: making labor hiring more flexible, eliminating distortionary taxes, securing social security sustainability, investing in infrastructure through public-private partnerships, and strengthening the credit market.
That vote in favor of reform is the direct consequence of what Argentines experienced firsthand over the last two years. Of course, it was difficult and painful, but in just one year results began to appear. Argentina achieved the first sustained recovery of real wages since the 2000s. According to the Milei Reform Watch observatory of the Universidad Francisco Marroquín, registered workers’ salaries grew 12% between May 2024 and May 2025. Inflation, which had reached 211% in 2023, fell to 117% in 2024 and is projected around 30% for 2025. Gross Domestic Product returned to growth, with a 3.9% increase in the last quarter of 2024, while the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) grew more than 6% year-over-year in May 2025.
But the most revealing figure was the impressive increase in capital goods imports, which rose 98% compared to the previous year: Argentine entrepreneurs purchased machinery, technology, and equipment like never before. For them, investing in goods that expand production is the strongest proof of confidence in the country. It means betting pesos today while expecting to produce and sell more tomorrow. That faith in the future explains the rebound in capital accumulation and the awakening of the Argentine economy toward change.
If Argentina maintains this pace, its gross fixed capital formation could reach 20% of GDP, well above the 16% it had before the beginning of Milei’s government, a level similar to Guatemala’s today. That is why I believe Milei’s formula is applicable to Guatemala, because both economies share the same starting point: a gross fixed capital formation of 16% of GDP, insufficient to grow at the speed necessary to generate wealth.
Guatemala does not yet suffer the chaos inherited by Milei, with runaway inflation and unpayable debt, but it does suffer its most dangerous symptom: fiscal erosion and business distrust. The public deficit exceeds 3% of GDP —equivalent to a quarter of the national budget— and is financed through bonds and debt. That practice destroys the fiscal prudence that for decades gave us stability and threatens to drag us into a cycle of prolonged stagnation. Imagine if a carton of 12 eggs went from Q19.40 to Q60.33 in one year; that reflects inflation of 211%, the real cost of uncontrolled spending in pre-Milei Argentina.
God spare us from such inflation! But what we do suffer, just like pre-Milei Argentina, is the lack of investment and sufficient growth to create wealth. GDP per capita growth is barely above 2%, and capital accumulation remains at 16%, indicators insufficient to generate prosperity for the majority. Nations that became rich starting from almost nothing —South Korea, Ireland, Singapore, or Panama— accelerated the moment their entrepreneurs began buying machinery and productive goods. When those investments reached the equivalent of one quarter of their economies, prosperity skyrocketed. South Korea and Singapore doubled their per capita income in barely one decade; Ireland multiplied it fivefold within a generation. Reaching a gross capital accumulation of 25% of GDP is, in practice, the turning point separating countries that prosper from those resigned to merely surviving.
To achieve this, Guatemala needs a zero-deficit policy that eliminates inefficient spending and reduces income tax, together with distortionary taxes such as ISO. It must promote a master plan for infrastructure and competitive energy through public-private partnerships, offer legal stability with investment laws protected from political change, and orient its industrial policy toward exports. At the same time, it is urgent to expand credit to small and medium-sized businesses and promote technical, financial, and bilingual education —English and Spanish— connecting talent with productive capital and preparing young people for a global economy.
Applying “Milei’s chainsaw” to unproductive spending does not mean destroying the State, but rather clearing away privileges so that resources reach the Guatemalan who risks everything every day to generate employment. We are not talking about sacrificing the people who always pay for crises, but about freeing their efforts from the shackles of clientelism and corruption. It is about building policies that serve those who need them most: those who have nothing to eat, those who send their children north due to lack of opportunity, those who work tirelessly hoping that the country will one day give them the chance to live better.
The people of Guatemala have a unique opportunity: to choose, at a decisive moment in history, whether they want to continue managing poverty or begin building wealth. Let us not allow Guatemala to lose its way. Let us look at our neighbors: the last time Argentina chose poorly, it suffered more than a century of populist alternation; in Mexico there was a one-party dictatorship lasting more than seventy years; and in Venezuela it has lasted more than twenty-five. By following Milei’s formula, we have the opportunity to change our destiny, to become the nation that finally dares to build its future, looking together toward the path already shining elsewhere.
The peoples who choose freedom always end up defeating fear. Those who postpone it end up defeated by conformity.
Long live freedom, damn it!
Sources Consulted:
- Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), Monetary Policy Report 2025.
- National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC), EMAE and CPI 2023–2025.
- Ministry of Economy of Argentina, Foreign Trade Report, July 2025.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook Database, 2025.
- World Bank, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (% of GDP).
- Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), Public Finances and Balance of Payments, 2025.
- OECD Data, Gross Fixed Capital Formation – Comparative Statistics 2000–2025.
