In the face of the imminent shift in the winds from the North, Guatemala has the opportunity to demonstrate its regional leadership.
Last Wednesday, November 6, Donald Trump was declared the winner of the election, becoming the 47th president of the United States. His return to power is a historic event, comparable only to that of Grover Cleveland, until now the only U.S. president elected in non-consecutive terms in 1893.
Beyond the presidency, Republicans consolidated a majority in both chambers of Congress, with 53 senators against 47 Democrats and a possible majority of 222 seats in the House of Representatives. This scenario grants the Republican Party a solid majority in both chambers, demonstrating that, in addition to winning the popular vote, Republicans enjoy firm support from the American people. This will undoubtedly strengthen President Trump’s negotiating power in his international relations, including with Guatemala.
By contrast, Trump has assembled a team of high-profile and experienced figures to accompany him during his administration, in marked contrast to the Democrats. The turning point of the Republican campaign was the assassination attempt on July 13 in Butler, Pennsylvania. Following this event, Elon Musk and Robert Kennedy Jr. joined his team. Musk, a pioneer in technological innovation, will be in charge of Trump’s government efficiency agenda. He is considering optimizing the federal government with spending cuts of up to 2 trillion dollars, equivalent to 30% of the budget, while Kennedy Jr., after ending his presidential campaign, will take leadership on the child health crisis.
Later, Tulsi Gabbard joined, former candidate for the Democratic nomination and Iraq War veteran, along with Vivek Ramaswamy, entrepreneur opposed to “woke” culture and defender of the free-market agenda, who is rumored to lead the Department of Commerce, opening potential opportunities in trade agreements and Foreign Direct Investment projects for Guatemala.
The fifth member of President Trump’s support team is the new vice president, J.D. Vance, senator from Ohio and author of the book Hillbilly Elegy (2016). In his work, Vance recounts his childhood in poverty, his struggles to graduate as a lawyer from Yale, and his trajectory as a Marine during the Iraq War, an experience that provided him with discipline and a key perspective for his life and career. In any negotiation, Vance will prioritize trade initiatives that do not increase migration toward the United States or affect American jobs. Alongside him, Susie Wiles, a key campaign strategist, will assume the role of Chief of Staff. Meanwhile, Richard Grenell, former ambassador to Germany, could become Secretary of State. With his “transactional diplomacy” perspective focused on direct exchanges of benefits, he presents both challenges and opportunities for Guatemala. It is crucial to prepare negotiation strategies that guarantee mutual benefits in order to surpass other countries in the region in influence.
Taking advantage of this historic moment will not only boost our development and the enormous dormant potential of our country, but also consolidate our position as a key partner in the hemisphere’s political and economic strategy.
To achieve this, Guatemala should consider the following strategies to facilitate effective negotiation with the United States:
- Strengthen migration control and reduce migratory pressure toward the north: Guatemala can contribute to the narrative of border protection by offering concrete measures, such as expanding the Asylum Cooperation Agreements (ACA), reinforcing migration control, and creating special economic zones that promote development in rural areas.
- Align positions in international policy: Guatemala can strengthen its position as a strategic ally of the United States by consolidating support for Taiwan, maintaining its position in international forums as a defender of Israel, and showing consistency in its stance on Ukraine. In addition, it can present itself as a key counterweight to authoritarian leftist governments in Latin America, standing out as a promoter of democracy and the free market.
- Become a key destination for reshoring and nearshoring: Within the “America First” narrative, Guatemala must position itself as a viable alternative for the relocation of industrial production, reducing U.S. dependence on China. This includes guaranteeing legal certainty, simplifying bureaucracy for investors, and reaffirming commitment to the CAFTA-DR trade agreement as a framework for bilateral commerce.
- Contribute to U.S. security: Guatemala can strengthen intelligence cooperation, actively participate in regional security initiatives, and increase border controls, positioning itself as a reliable partner in the fight against organized crime.
- Become the preferred partner in the region: Guatemala must present itself as the region’s most reliable ally, standing out for its economic stability and potential, surpassing Costa Rica’s lack of prominence and the political tensions involving Mexico and El Salvador.
In the face of the imminent shift in the winds from the North, Guatemala has the opportunity to demonstrate its regional leadership, its ability to propose strategies that serve our shared interests with the United States, and its capacity to build a strategic relationship with our northern neighbor. Taking advantage of this historic moment will not only boost our development and the enormous dormant potential of our country, but will also consolidate our position as a key partner in the hemisphere’s political and economic strategy.
